The war in Ukraine
Looking back: The 2014 revolution in Ukraine
Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until 1991. Since then Ukraine has been a less than perfect democracy with quite weak economy and foreign policy that weaves between a pro-Russian and pro-European relationship. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became a free and independent country. In 1994 it was recognised by Russia, the UK and the US as an independent country in the Budapest memorandum. The memoranda meant that Ukraine was recognised, but it also meant that it was not permitted to build an army or have any access to nuclear weapons to protect themselves in the future. This vulnerability was taken advantage of in 2023 ….
This all became an internal Ukrainian crisis in November 2013, when president of the Ukraine Viktor Yanuckovych rejected a deal for greater integration in the European Union, causing mass protests across the country which Viktor Yanuckovych attempted to stop using army forces. This was the beginning of the end for Viktor Yanuckovych, with the ongoing protests in Ukraine, the president had to leave the country and fled into Russia.
At the same time that the protests were happening, the Russian army moved into the region of Crimea. The history of Crimea is complicated, originally part of the Ottoman empire, it was taken over by Russia until the fall of the Soviet union when it became a part of the newly independent Ukraine. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea claiming that it always belonged to Russia. In April 2014, pro-Russian separatists rebels began seizing territory in the coal-rich region of The Donbas in Eastern Ukraine. As fighting between Ukrainians and the rebels continued, the rebels started losing and, in August, Russian started helping rebels. So sanctions were pushing Russia's economy to its lowest point.
So what is happening now in Ukraine?
Life struggles on
Russian forces began their full-scale invasion on the 24th of February 2022. Since then, western officials estimate hundreds of thousands killed ukrainians, millions of ukrainians had fled the country and the country has sustained tens of billions of dollars worth of damage.
Russian forces attacked the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and the country's second largest city, Kharkiv in the attempt to overthrow the president of Ukraine. A lot of experts were predicting the fall of Kyiv in the first week or weeks from invasion, but after weeks of fighting Russians troops pulled back.
In the march of the same year Russia was attacking Ukraine mostly from the south, taking one of the biggest cities in the southern part of Ukraine Kherson. Far more Ukrainians were killed this month.
In May of 2022, Ukraine forces surrendered in the port in the city Mariupol after months of bombardment. The fighting ended with a siege of the Azov steel plant, which has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance.
In June 2022, Russia surrendered from Snake Island in the Black Sea that Russians captured in February. Two months after sinking the flagship of Russia's black sea fleet, the Moskva.
By August of 2022, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the Kherson region. Ukraine started using a lot of new weapons such as HIMARS. Also, Ukraine attacked an air force base in Crimea.
In October, Ukraine damaged the Kerch bridge that was connecting Crimea and Russia, so Russia conducted a massive airstrike on almost all Ukraine regions. Also, Russia announced annexation of four Ukrainian regions.
In November Russians troops withdrew from Kherson city to the eastern side of river Dnipro, giving Ukraine significant victory.
December 2022 Ukraine took out drones and attacked military bases far away from Moscow showing Russia that Ukraine can shoot even in the capital of Russia.
February 2022 Russian forces tried to renew the offensive in eastern Ukraine in the city Bachmut, but Russia sustained heavy losses also European and U.S. news were estimating more than 200,000 people killed or wounded. Ukraine had 100,000 killed or wounded people, also at least 30,000 civilian people.
What is happening in 2023 and happening with Wagner?
And how is NATO helping?
Now into the second year of the conflict, supply of weapons continues to be a major concern for the Ukrainian forces. In 2023 Europe committed to supplying Ukraine with much needed 155mm shells but the European weapon factories say that they can only produce 28 000 a month, Ukraine uses
more than 28 000 shells a month to maintain the momentum of the counter offensive. Nato is delivering new Abraham and Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and the US is delivering ATACAMS missile system, capable of Despite some losses, Ukraines counter offensives are working, in part due to the continued backing of the United States and European allies in terms of political support and weapons.
However, 2023 also saw an increased involvement of the Wagner Group, where an estimated 25,000 mercenaries from a Russian private military company supported Putin’s offensive in Ukraine. Putin hoped that this boost of military personnel on the ground would swing the momentum of the war in Russia’s favor.
In June 2023, the leader of The Wagner Yevgeny Decided to stage a mutiny and march on Putin’s army in Belarus. Many questions remain after Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny. While it was certainly a turning point for Vladimir Putin's rule, the consequences for Russia and Ukraine remain unclear. However, this misstep from Prigozhin would prove fatal after his private jet crashed on its way from Moscow to St Petersburg on August 23, two months after the failed mutiny. Putin denies any involvement.
A new catastrophy to distract support
On October 7th 2023, a terrorist organization called Hamas attacked Israel bringing a new international crisis to global attention. Ukraine is worried that conflict is distracting the attention of the world public away from their needs and that this conflict could tie up the much needed resources for Ukraine. US President Joe Biden has vowed to support Ukraine "as long as necessary." But how long is that and what are the potential final outcome scenarios?
